January 23, 2025
January Market Minute 2025
As 2024 draws to a close, we’ve witnessed twelve months of changing and sometimes challenging conditions across metal markets.
In conversations with customers, Jonathan Dunnam, SteelNow customer experience manager, has found many in a holding pattern, looking with hopeful anticipation towards the new year.
Getting consistent work has been especially tough for small businesses in 2024, and some fabricators have taken on service and repair work to sustain their business.
As they finish out the year, buying in small quantities and carefully managing inventory and labor seems to be the focus for many through the end of December.
Here’s what we’re seeing in the market moving towards 2025:
Steel Prices: A Rollercoaster Year with Big Lessons
The carbon steel market in 2024 felt like a rollercoaster—big highs, sharp drops, and a lot of white-knuckle moments in between. Prices started the year at a rare high of $1,000/ton, only to tumble into the $600/ton range by mid-year.
For smaller buyers, this was a tough ride. If you bought at the wrong time, you might’ve paid too much or ended up sitting on costly inventory. Imports didn’t offer much relief either—fluctuating domestic prices made placing long-term orders risky.
As we look ahead, there’s more uncertainty brewing. Tariff talks are heating up, and changes—especially with Canada and Mexico—could shake up pricing and supply again. If you’re planning for 2025, it’s a good idea to keep your inventory balanced, avoid overcommitting, and stay close to your supplier to jump on price dips when they come.
Aluminum: Tariffs Could Shake Things Up
If you rely on aluminum, keep an eye on trade talks—things could get bumpy. There’s buzz about a potential 25% tariff on aluminum imports from Canada, which is a big deal since around 85% of the ingot used by U.S. mills comes from Canada. If those tariffs hit, costs could climb, and supply chains could see some serious disruption.
This also means Midwest premiums could spike, making aluminum even pricier and harder to source. The takeaway? Plan, keep lines open with your suppliers, and don’t wait too long to lock in your material—especially if you’re on a tight timeline or budget.
Stainless Steel Sees Mixed Signals
Stainless steel is in a weird spot right now. Demand feels steady, but nickel prices are jumping around, which can make stainless costs unpredictable. For smaller buyers, this means you’ll want to keep communication open with your suppliers and consider locking in prices where you can to avoid any mid-project surprises.
Manufacturing Activity Shows Resilience
Good news: manufacturing is holding strong, and that’s keeping demand for metal steady. The downside? It might mean tighter competition for materials. If you’re seeing longer lead times or delays, staying flexible with your orders—like exploring alternative grades or sizes—could help you keep projects on track.