September 24, 2025
September Market Minute 2025
What Mexico’s Steel Proposal Means for Texas Buyers
Mexico is considering bringing back a North American steel committee, pairing U.S. and Mexican producers with trade officials to reinforce regional supply. For small and mid-sized Texas buyers, that could translate to fewer surprises from overseas markets and steadier sourcing close to home.
Still, it’s not without moving parts: increased U.S. steel demand from Mexico could nudge prices up, while ongoing tariff talks will shape how freely steel crosses the border. Bottom line—regional reliability is the aim, and Texas buyers should keep it on their radar.
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Aluminum Buyers Feeling the Pinch
Most of the action in aluminum is showing up in the Midwest Premiums—the added cost for delivery into the region. A 50% tariff on imported ingot has been fully priced in, pushing premiums higher. That means delivered aluminum costs more even when the base price stands still.
Where things head next depends heavily on negotiations. Should trade deals reduce tariffs, premiums could drop quickly. If talks stall, higher costs may linger into 2026.
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Stainless: Stable, but Watch the Tariffs
Nickel—the driver of stainless surcharges—remains steady in the $6–$7/lb. range, a manageable level compared to the five-year average. That’s keeping surcharges predictable for buyers.
But two factors bear watching:
Tariffs: Recent import tariffs have sparked some base price hikes that look to be sticking.
Nickel Supply: Robust output from Indonesia is adding to inventories, which could pressure prices if demand softens.
For now, stainless buyers are seeing a more stable environment: steady nickel, manageable surcharges, and base prices adjusting to policy.
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