March 20, 2024
March Market Minute 2024
As we head into April, homebuilder sentiment is looking stronger, according to the National Assn. of Home Builders, natural gas prices have declined due to warmer winter conditions, and non-residential construction continues to be buoyed by investment in infrastructure projects.
Metal remains at the heart of all these sectors and more. Here is your pulse of the metals market.
Prices, Scrap Rates, and Import Dynamics, Oh My!
Sheet and Plate Prices
Sheet prices continue to decline, with spot prices for hot-rolled coil (HRC) hovering around $800 per ton.
While plate CRU prices remain historically high compared to HRC, the gap has widened once more, currently at $456 per ton above HRC. This spread marks a resurgence from last year when it reached as high as $700 per ton.
Scrap Rates
Busheling scrap prices declined significantly by $30 per ton in February, and further decreases are anticipated in March.
Import Dynamics
Import offers are largely perceived as non-competitive due to anticipated arrival times and potential domestic price declines.
Product | Lead Time from Mills |
|---|---|
HR | ~3 weeks |
CR | ~4 weeks |
Coated | ~4 weeks |
Plate | ~5 weeks |
Stabilizing Signs for the Copper Market
Copper prices stabilized in February and have experienced a slight uptick, reaching $3.85/lb. Recent murmurs of scrap shortages for copper-based products in March contributed to price volatility.
However, there are signs of a rebound in building and plumbing product end use, with mills reporting a modest increase in activity at the beginning of the quarter. These developments suggest a mixed landscape for the red metals market, with price stability tempered by supply chain challenges and sector-specific demand fluctuations.
Resetting Stainless Surcharges
Recent developments in nickel and chrome prices are causing market experts to believe that stainless surcharges could reset in April.
Nickel prices on the LME rose from around $7 to $8/lb. This increase could result in adjustments to surcharges. As a result, certain grades of stainless steel could see a 4—to 5-cent per pound increase in prices beginning in April.
Chrome is another input into the production of stainless steel. Prices have been on an upward pace over the last four years. Indications point to this trend continuing, with limited chrome production in South Africa and rising spot prices in China. This could result in higher prices as early as May.